FAAR SYAM - By mid-2025, the world is once again forced to move forward. Yet not all who move know where they're headed. Among the rows of growth indices and economic reports lies an old, unresolved question:
"Growth for whom?"
1. Global Economy :Strong on the Outside, Fragile Within
The World Bank and OECD have released their latest projections. This year, global economic growth is expected to remain modest at 2.6% to 2.9%.
“Geopolitical tensions, stagnant productivity, and ballooning public debt continue to weigh down the global economy.” — OECD, Global Economic Report 2025
The Russia–Ukraine conflict has not fully ended. China is tightening its grip on high-tech exports. The United States continues to protect its domestic industries. In the middle of all this, developing nations are left to navigate between the legs of giants constantly jostling for control.
"The global economy is not recovering—it’s adapting to a world changing too fast." — IMF Chief Economist, May 2025
Stock markets remain cautious. Oil prices hover above USD 80/barrel. Currencies swing unpredictably.
And all this trickles down to the most basic level: the price of food in traditional markets, in many countries, including Indonesia.
2. America & China (Two Powers That Never Sleep)
The economic ties between these two superpowers are like sand and waves—constantly clashing, sometimes calm, but never truly united. At the latest trade forum in London, tensions resurfaced, though no open confrontation occurred.
"We are open to dialogue, but will not bow to foreign pressure." — Chinese Trade Delegation
Trade restrictions, export limits on microchips, and monetary policies remain instruments of their silent battle. The rest of the world can only hope that their duel does not crush the smaller nations caught in between.
Every decision made in Washington and Beijing affects currency in Jakarta, wheat prices in India, and energy bills in Africa.
3. Indonesia Growth on Paper, Survival in Reality
The government has set a target of 5.2% growth in 2025. However, major institutions including the World Bank and ADB have revised their forecasts to 4.8% – 5.0%.
“5.2% is achievable, but only if household consumption and private investment rebound quickly.” — Executive Director, Indef
But reality on the ground often tells a different story.
Purchasing power is declining. Food prices continue to climb. The manufacturing sector still struggles to recover from the 2024 downturn.
“GDP can rise, but more people are eating just once a day.”
4. Data Cannot Cover What’s Real
There are polished numbers in official reports. But there are also messy realities at the dinner tables of low-income families. Often, the former hides the latter.
The economic reality of Indonesia in 2025 is underscored by:
- Over 50% of the population still lives on less than USD 4 a day.
- Economic inequality has continued to widen since 2020.
- Government debt-to-GDP ratio is nearing 40%, while budget deficits are narrowed by cutting subsidies.
- Inflation is claimed to be stable at 3.1%, but this does not reflect actual prices in public markets.
“We’ve managed to protect the numbers, but we’ve lost the human sense.”
5. A World in Motion, But Not Everyone Moves With It
The economy is alive. But it lives like a machine: spinning, cold, and indifferent to those crushed in its gears.
"The global economy may grow. But does social justice grow with it?"
Growth without inclusion is not progress, it is the accumulation of power. And power concentrated in the few tears the world apart like an unhealed scar.
Conclusion: Growth is Not Just a Number
In a world full of figures, the most human things are often forgotten, basic needs, dignity, contentment, and a decent life.
“GDP grows. But wages stay. Prices rise. And time with family disappears.”
If the economy continues to be spoken of only through graphs and not through human stories, then it is no longer a tool for development it becomes a labyrinth for those who are never given a map.
Key Sentences
- Global economic growth in 2025 is projected at only 2.6–2.9%.
- The U.S. and China continue their quiet trade and tech conflict.
- Indonesia targets 5.2% growth, but actual results may be lower.
- Purchasing power is weakening; social inequality is widening.
- Growth without justice is growth with a limp.
إِنَّمَا الْأَعْمَالُ بِالنِّيَّاتِ، وَإِنَّمَا لِكُلِّ امْرِئٍ مَا نَوَى
Artinya: “Sesungguhnya segala amal tergantung niatnya, dan setiap orang akan mendapatkan sesuai dengan apa yang diniatkan.”
[HR. Bukhari dan Muslim]